The Chinese one-child policy appears to have worked. China’s population has slowed and will soon level off. India has not achieved that stabilization, however. The problem for the Chinese is that they may become an old country before they become rich. With a declining birthrate, an older population becomes a bigger burden and less productive. Health care and retirement grow as priorities. If the Chinese don’t have the affluence to address those needs, social turmoil will ensue.

Many people think China will become the United States chief rival in a few short decades. That may be true, but it is unlikely that the Chinese can maintain that level of competition. They may fall aside the same way the Soviet Union did in the 1980′s. In the process, the Chinese leadership may need to adapt to political change or face a revolution from an unhappy populace.

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